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9/08/2014

அகவிலைப்படி(DA) ஜனவரி - 2015ல் 6 முதல் 9 சதவீதம் உயர வாய்ப்பு

Expected Dearness Allowance from January 2015

As all of us expected, 7% DA hike has been approved by Cabinet on 4th September 2014. Necessary order for payment of DA with effect from 1st July 2014 will be issued by Ministry of Finance soon. Here after our focus will be moving on to next instalment of dearness allowance which will be paid from 1st January 2015. We just analyse the trend of Consumer Price Index with the past seven months AICPCIN to arrive the expected DA from January 2015.
Since 2006, the AICPIN has witnessed second highest ever increase in July 2014. In 2009 the AICPIN increased by 7 points from 153 to 160 in the month of July. After that, an increase of 6 points over 246 points was declared in July 2014. It is the second highest monthly increase on AICPIN records from 2006. See the table below…
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecMaxIncrease
20061191191191201211231241241251271271272
20071271281271281291301321331331341341342
20081341351371381391401431451461481481473
20091481481481501511531601621631651681697
20101721701701701721741781781791811821853
20111881851851861871891931941971981991974
20121981992012052062082122142152172182194
20132212232242262282312352372382412432394
20142372382392422442462526
What is the impact of this highest increase of AICPIN on expected Dearness Allowance from January 2015?
It is observed that when it was 7 points increase in July 2009, it influenced very much on increasing the rate of DA to be paid from 1st January 2010 and 1st July 2010. The rate of Dearness Allowance had been enhanced by 8% from 25% to 35% with effect from 1.1.2010 and 10% increase from 35% to 45% was declared with effect from 1.7.2010. Though there was no considerable increase after those 7 points in that particular 12 months from July 2009 to June 2010, the rate of DA had been reached 8% and 10% increase level for  successive two instalments.
From this point of view, it is quite obvious that this one month increase on AICPIN is enough to play a vital role to have a considerable hike in rate of Dearness Allowance for forth coming two instalments. So this 6 points increase of AICPIN in July 2014, we can expect, will have a profound impact on increasing the rate of Dearness allowance to be paid, not only from 1st January 2015, but also from July 2015.
Let us see the three probabilities of  AICPIN trend, through which we can figure out approximately the expected DA from January 2015 
Probabilities (with AICPIN-IW points)Expected DA from Jan 2015
Average increase of 3 points for remaining 5 months9%
Average increase of 2 points for remaining 5 months8%
If same points (252)continues for remaining  5 months6%